What Kept Us Humming

Everything is usually obvious in retrospect. It's now pretty obvious why the economy never hit the skids last year, despite the constant negative banter. It would have been the most talked about, planned for recession in history.

If the U.S. economy is ~ 70% consumer spending, it would make sense that the state of the consumer is a pretty big driver, for better or worse. Not only has the unemployment rate remained low, but wages continue to rise at a faster rate than inflation.

As a financial adviser working with families planning around goals such as multi-decade retirements, we generally are not interested in running portfolios around short-term economic forecasting, trading or gut instinct. It's not how I invest personally, either.

But it's important to recognize that while most everyone was talking about the inevitability of inflation and higher interest rates leading us into a deep recession, they never considered the potential positive offsets of those same factors.

By no means should you be trying to predict what happens next. But it's helpful to recognize that very few people over the past 18-24 months went on the record and said the economy was going to hold up ok. Be cautious in following the overwhelming consensus. 

Either way, it's probably productive to keep an eye on the state of the consumer. The current story is never static, only evolving. 

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^{Source: Carson Investment Research}

^{The content in this  article was prepared by the article’s author and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. Voya Financial Advisors does not endorse its content, and the views expressed may not necessarily reflect those held by Voya Financial Advisors.}