'Another factor shaping NFL coaches' caution may be, as Romer himself suggests, an aversion to risk. Going for it on fourth-and-two makes strategic sense, but it may not make psychological sense. After all, Romer's strategy means that teams would fail to score roughly half the time they were inside the opponent's ten yard line. That's a winning strategy in the long run. But it's still a tough ratio for a risk-averse person to accept. Similarly, even though punting on fourth down makes little sense, it at least limits disaster.'

Bill Belichick was crucified in the local media after his decision to go for it on fourth-and-two in a regular season game against the Colts in 2009. In the moment, it was a shock. WHAT ARE THEY DOING?! The National Football League had long established a conservative culture that almost always resulted in coaches punting on 4th down. If they did go for it, it most certainly was not when they were up six points on their own twenty-eight with two minutes left in the game. That was for video games.

But Belichick is different. That's part of what makes him great. Anyone with a working brain could see the downside to a decision like this. If they punt to appease conventional wisdom, and the Colts end up driving down the field to win the game, Bill's off the hook. He just made the decision that everyone else would have made in that moment. But that's not what he's about. Ultimately, the data did support the decision, and going for it on fourth down has become much more common in the years following.

This is what makes a good investor. Although the future is uncertain, they are willing to overlook inevitable short-term failures for sustainable success. It's not about good optics with each quarterly or annual performance report. In fact, they almost ignore that stuff because it's a distraction from good decision making frameworks. Various short-term results won't pan out. That doesn't mean the decision itself was incorrect. 

Punting on your portfolio (for example right now, because of Coronavirus or a potential Bernie Sanders nomination) may make you feel better. It makes psychological sense. Yet we know this probably isn't congruent with long-term, sustainable success. It makes no strategic sense.

Would you trade a handful of Patriots Super Bowls for a regular season win against the Colts in 2009? Hell no. But they're two sides of the same coin. You don't get the Patriots dynasty without a few uncomfortable hiccups along the way.

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^Sources:

^{The Wisdom of Crowds (James Surowiecki)}

^{Go for It: The Story Behind the NFL's Fourth-Down Conversion (Kevin Clark, theringer.com)}